The LA Clippers Look to the Offseason After the Trade Deadline

After a very eventful trade deadline, the LA Clippers look very different. We look at some of the directions they could take in the offseason.

It’s done. After a frenzied final day and a half of trading season, the LA Clippers emerge looking totally different.

Departures: Tobias Harris (traded), Boban Marjanovic (traded), Mike Scott (traded) – those three in the same trade – Avery Bradley (traded), Mike Muscala (recently acquired, then traded), Marcin Gortat (waived), Milos Teodosic (waived).

Arrivals: Wilson Chandler, Landry Shamet (see the rookie’s outlook here), JaMychal Green, Garrett Temple, Michael Beasley (soon to be waived), Ivica Zubac.

In addition, the Clippers set themselves up with two more first round picks and two more second round picks. They have many options this offseason, and for the Clips’ front office, the world truly is their oyster.

The following players have contracts past this offseason for the Clippers: Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jerome Robinson, Landry Shamet, Sindarius Thornwell (non-guaranteed) and Tyrone Wallace (non-guaranteed).

Average age: 25.25. Six of those eight are 25 years old or younger. If they move Gallinari, the highest paid player is Sweet Lou at $8 million. Saying the Clippers have flexibility this summer is an understatement; the Clippers could go on America’s Got Talent as a contortionist.

So what can the Clippers do with all that space and all those assets? It’s all going to start with Anthony Davis. It’s been reported that Anthony Davis has named the Clippers as a team he would prefer to be traded to, among others.

Anthony Davis has the Knicks on equal footing with the Lakers in terms of teams he is interested in signing with long-term, @NYTSports has learned. The Clippers and Bucks also remain preferred destinations on his list
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) February 7, 2019

In the offseason, the Celtics will be able to throw the arsenal into a Davis trade; it’s uncertain, however, if Davis would re-sign there, which could temper any offer Boston sends. That said, the Celtics have a trove of assets to offer, with a package that one assumes would have to be centered around Jayson Tatum. And we’re all aware of the Lakers’ offer of basically the entire young core plus several picks.

Could the Clippers make an offer that rivals those? It’s uncertain if they could (or if they would be willing to), but surely they will at least kick the tires on Anthony Davis. If Davis lowers his value to Boston by continuing to refuse to re-sign, and if the Pelicans don’t want to play ball with the Lakers, the Clips could be an attractive destination for the All-NBA big man. Ryan Snellings discussed what the Clips could offer for AD here.

If Davis does come to LA to be a Clipper, there will still be plenty of cap space to build a team around him. A Kawhi Leonard signing would be very possible, and suddenly the Clips could be the scariest two-way team in the league. A defense of Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis would terrorize offenses, and the offense would sail along nicely with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Landry Shamet as support pieces.

On the other hand, if Davis is traded elsewhere, the Clippers can be major players in free agency. If the Clippers retain Danilo Gallinari and renounce rights on all their free agents, they’ll have $59.6 million in space (per Spotrac). Could they find a bad team to take Gallinari’s contract at the price of the 76ers first round pick? The Hawks, for example, won’t be competing in 2019-20, and could take on Gallinari.

It’s uncertain, but if so, they’d be playing with around $80 million. If they had handshake agreements with free agents and needed the space, they could send Lou Williams away for a second round pick for an additional $8 million. It would be very difficult to reach 3 max-level contract space, but they could certainly have the space to sign two max players (*cough cough* Kawhi and KD *cough cough*) and another good piece.

Julius Randle is an unrestricted free agent this year. Depending on how much he’ll be offered, a quasi-small-ball, super switchable lineup of SGA/Shamet/Kawhi/KD/Randle sounds very fun. Nikola Vucevic could also be a target here for that not-quite-max spot.

The Clippers have a good shot at Kawhi, but our chances at KD are a bit tougher to pinpoint. If he doesn’t come to LA, there are other free agents out there that the front office could be interested in. Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Khris Middleton and Kyrie Irving will all hit the market and will likely command max contracts. The Clippers could get involved with any of these, although Kemba and Kyrie are probably less likely given the Clips young trio of guards.

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Another option would be to sign Kawhi Leonard and then use the rest of the space to pick up complementary pieces. Today’s NBA seems to require at least two superstars to compete, but if the Clippers see SGA as that second piece to Kawhi, they could pick up some super role players and depth. Players like Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Brook Lopez and others could help fill out the starting lineup and bench with serious talent, without commanding max level contracts.

One last item to point out is the Clippers’ own free agents. Zubac, Green, Chandler, Beverley and Mbah a Moute are all available to be brought back. Clippers fans should especially keep their eyes on Zubac. He’s a restricted free agent, so the Clippers may choose to give him the qualifying offer and keep his cap hold. In this case, the Clips would have the opportunity to match any offer sheet he signs, but it’s unclear what he may fetch in free agency. If he flies under the radar (much like Montrezl Harrell last summer), Los Angeles could secure a quality young big man for cheap.

The Draft

The draft will present another opportunity for the Clippers. After this trade, many expect the Clippers to drop out of the playoffs. Per Tankathon, if the Clippers (currently 30-25) were to drop down to the 11th worst record (currently tied between the Timberwolves and the Mavs at 25-28), they would have a 9.4% chance at a top 4 pick, assuming no tied. The 10th worst record (currently Detroit at 24-29) gives them a 13.9% chance at a top 4 pick. It’s very unlikely, but if the season were to go far south and the Clippers dropped to the 9th worst record (currently the Pels at 24-31), they’d bump up to a 20.2% chance at picking in the top 4. 1 in 5!

Even if the ping pong balls don’t bounce the way of the Clippers, they have tons of assets to try to move up, if they want to try. If their pick falls at 11 or above, it’s hard to see them moving far up in the draft, but in the unlikely event that they’re picking at 8, could that attractive Miami 2021 pick and the Philadelphia 2020 pick be enough to move up into the top 6? It’s probably unlikely, but the Clips have enough assets that teams picking 3-6 likely wouldn’t hang up the phone without talking about it.

That draft plan would go very nicely with the Clippers making waves in free agency. They aren’t mutually exclusive by any means. It could make LAC an even more attractive destination if they were to nail the draft again.

Reality

To wrap up, let’s put on our super-optimistic Clippers hats. Not “what if we get the number one pick and KD and Kawhi and Kemba and Kyrie all take paycuts to play here.” Not 100% unrealistic optimist – just 85%.

If all those “coulds” and “mights” and “not super likely buts” were to go our way, say we finish with the 9th worst record and the lotto balls/a trade gets us up to the 3rd or 4th pick. Then, with our pick on the roster, we’re able to move Danilo and Lou and free up space to lure Kawhi, KD and complementary pieces. Then we run out a starting five of SGA/RJ Barrett (or Cameron Reddish or your favorite pick here)/Kawhi Leonard/Kevin Durant/Julius Randle (or Vucevic or Zubac), with Landry Shamet as a super sixth man, and then role players.

Of course that’s not likely. It’s not anywhere close to likely. But we have our super-optimist hats on now, right? And really, even if only 50% of that best case happens, that’s still a great team.

The Clippers can go several ways this offseason. Any of them have the potential to turn the Clippers into contenders, and Clippers fans are likely in for a fun offseason.