Gameplan for the Playoffs
So what’s the path for LA to upset Portland in the playoffs? I think that the starting lineup LA is using right now is the best for this hypothetical series. That’s Patrick Beverley/SGA/Shamet/Gallinari/Zubac.
Beverley is our best hope guarding Damian Lillard; Dame can’t be shut down, but Bev will make him work for every point. Beverley’s also shooting the ball really well as of late; in his last 10 games, he’s hitting 3s at a 41.9% clip. If he can frustrate Dame and hit a few open 3s, he could help turn the series.
I think SGA is the best remaining guy to put on CJ McCollum. CJ is a tough matchup for anybody on the team, but Shai’s length can help him recover if CJ creates some space. This might be a case of Shai’s offense being his best defense. Per NBA Stats, Shai runs 1.55 miles per 36 minutes on offense, which is a good bit more than CJ’s used to running on defense (CJ runs 1.2 miles per 36 on defense). If Shai can keep up that energy, he’s got a shot at tiring out McCollum, which could make life easier for SGA on defense.
Landry and Gallo probably get the 3 and 4 defensive assignments here. If Shamet guards Maurice Harkless and Gallo guards Al-Farouq Aminu, they can focus more on offense. I really like Shamet against the Trailblazers (this shouldn’t be a surprise; I made the case in our most recent Slack Chat for a Landry Shamet fan club).
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The Blazers have 2 dudes in Dame and CJ who are constant threats to go off in a game, and we need the same on offense. We have Montrezl and Gallinari who will definitely get their points and help the team, but I think that Shamet and Lou Will are our best bets to go nuclear for a game or two. Lou almost certainly will; he’s playing incredibly this year and has several of those games already under his belt.
I’m looking for Shamet to have one, maybe two of those games where he goes 6-9 or 7-10 from 3 to help keep pace with the Portland guards. We know he has it in him; he’s had plenty of good -shooting games already, including an 8-14 from 3 game in Philly and a flamethrower 7-11 from 3 game on Sunday against the Knicks. It’s a very tough ask for the rookie, but it’s what we need if we want to stay competitive in the series.
If he can shoot the ball from 3 well, that warps the defense and makes life so much easier for guys like SGA or Lou Williams. Surrounding those guys with shooters opens up the paint, and suddenly they’re not dealing with double-teams on drives. And if the Blazers put CJ McCollum on Landry instead, we have the same strategy of tiring out CJ. Landry runs even more than SGA does on offense, averaging 1.6 miles per 36 minutes of offense.
Finally, Ivica Zubac would have to be the one to guard Jusuf Nurkic. This is a tough assignment, but Zubac is really the only guy we have with the size to make life difficult for Nurkic. If he can just slow down Portland’s big man and grab a few rebounds, that’s what we need from him. Zubac has only seen Nurkic once this season, a game in which Nurkic put up 14 points and 13 rebounds in 30 minutes.
In his limited minutes so far with the team, the Clippers are much better on the offensive glass while worsening on the defensive glass when Zubac is on the court. Also, LA’s offensive rating goes from 104.4 when he’s on to 112.4 when he’s off, but their defensive rating goes from 101.3 when he’s on to 112 when he’s off (stats per basketball-reference.) To an optimist like myself, that drop in offensive rating is something that can be alleviated as he gets used to the Clippers system, while those rebounding and defensive numbers show promise.
On offense, the Clips would probably be relying on Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari and the rookies. For any team, putting a ton of faith into rookies in the playoffs is a scary proposition. But there are multiple guys on this team that can get really hot. We’ll have to put trust in Doc to scheme these guys open and ride the hot hand.
Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell have been dynamite as a duo this season. They’re combining for 36.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 7.2 assists. That’s incredible production from the second unit. If Doc can find a way to scheme Gallinari and Shamet open and SGA repeats his earlier season performances against Portland, the combination of our starting lineup and super subs has a fighting chance.