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Why Lou Williams Will Repeat Last Season’s Numbers

By Jakob Ashlin

OAKLAND, CA - FEBRUARY 22: Lou Williams #23 of the Los Angeles Clippers dribbles past Nick Young #6 of the Golden State Warriors at ORACLE Arena on February 22, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA - FEBRUARY 22: Lou Williams #23 of the Los Angeles Clippers dribbles past Nick Young #6 of the Golden State Warriors at ORACLE Arena on February 22, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /
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The LA Clippers’ Lou Williams had an All-Star worthy season last year and averaged 22.6 points per game. Many experts are not expecting a repeat performance, but it is a strong possibility. Here’s why.

When the LA Clippers received guard Lou Williams as part of the Chris Paul trade, he was expected to be a replacement for Jamal Crawford and provide scoring off the bench. However, he proceeded to exceed expectations and was considered an All-Star snub by many.

Due to injuries early in the season to Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari, Williams became the go-to scorer for the Clippers and averaged a career-high 22.6 points per game. He became more comfortable in that role towards the middle of the season, and in the month of January, he averaged a scorching 28.2 points per game. That month also included Williams dropping 50 points on the Golden State Warriors in a win at Oracle Arena.

Williams came up big for the Clippers in the clutch and led the NBA in fourth quarter scoring. He scored 597 points during the fourth quarter last year. To put that in perspective, LeBron James was the next highest with 534 points.

Williams improved as a distributor, as well. He averaged a career-high 5.3 assists per game. Williams ran the pick and roll as the ball handler for 43.6% of his overall plays, which was the highest on the team. He ran the pick and roll as the ball handler only 33.7% of the time during his previous season in Houston.

Doc Rivers simply put the ball in Lou’s hands and trusted that he would make the right play, which he often did.

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With Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley, and Gallinari returning from injury and the Clippers adding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jerome Robinson, the common perception is that Williams will not average over 22 points again.

Numberfire projects him to score 1,543 points this season, which would equate to approximately 18.8 points per game.

What we have to take into consideration is that Lou’s averages where somewhat weighed down by his month in October. Even though there were only six games, he averaged only 13.2 points per game and 22.3 minutes. Every other month for the rest of the season, he averaged over 30 minutes.

Despite the crowded depth chart, I do not expect his minutes to change. The Clippers are chasing a playoff spot this season and Williams established himself as their best player last season. His shooting and scoring ability would fit nicely alongside Beverley, Bradley, and Gilgeous-Alexander. Rivers also loves utilizing three-guard lineups.

Williams will also have the luxury of playing alongside elite perimeter defenders such as Luc Mbah a Moute, Beverley, and Bradley. Not having to worry about defending elite scorers will allow him to conserve energy on the defensive side of the ball and be able to focus on offense.

More importantly, his shooting percentages were on par with his previous season. In his 2016-17 campaign with the Rockets and Lakers, Williams shot 42.9% from the field and 36.5% from three. Last season, he shot 43.5% from the field and 35.9% from three. It was not a case of him suddenly making shots he did not before. He just gained more volume.

I expect Williams to average around 22 points against this season, win another Sixth Man of the Year Award, and lead the Clippers to the playoffs.

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