Analyzing Jimmy Butler’s worth for the Los Angeles Clippers

While no moves having been made yet, we take a look at Jimmy Butler and analyze if he’s worth a max contract for the Los Angeles Clippers.

Jimmy Butler has not been moved yet. With more and more teams getting in the mix for the All-Star, should the Los Angeles Clippers even bother?

We discussed that previously. (Spoiler: We don’t think trading for him is smart.) However, we do have to ask: Is getting Butler next summer on a max contract even worth it?

Let’s take a look at the facts.

The Future Outlook

Jimmy Butler will be a free agent next summer. Teams trading for him will either look to extend him or give him a five year max deal worth $190 million. Should Butler sign with a new team, he will only be able to sign a four year deal worth $141 million.

Butler just turned 29-years-old, so by the end of the fourth year of his contract, he will be 33. This is right on the end of what many deem a player’s prime. Locking in to a Butler contract leaves any franchise with a large contract on a player who may still be in his prime, but has already suffered from injuries.

In his 2017-18 campaign, Butler injured his meniscus which caused him to miss 23 games. In fact, Butler has only once played all 82 games in his seven year career.

Butler also has heavy minutes on his body, having played for Tom Thibodeau. Thibs is synonymous for running players into the ground by demanding high minutes. Over the past five seasons, Butler has averaged 37.6 minutes per game.

Seem high? That’s because it is. Over the past five seasons, Butler has ranked top-five in minutes played in each one.

It’s obviously not all bad though.

The Present

All of this isn’t to say Butler isn’t a superstar. He is a renowned two-way player, capable of locking up an opponents best player while still able to score on the other end.

Last season, Butler averaged an even two steals a game, which put him at fourth overall. Butler’s opponents also shot 1.8% worse on field goals he defended. While that’s not among league leaders, it still shows a positive defensive impact.

On the offensive side, Butler dropped 22.2 points per game last season. He did so on 47.4% shooting, albeit only 35% from deep. His offensive rating painted him as one of the top guys in the league. Among players who played more than fifteen minutes, Butler ranked tenth with an offensive rating of 113.3. His player impact rating, which shows a player’s overall statistical contribution, was good enough to rank him 33rd in the league and 26th among players who played more than fifteen minutes.

Butler’s Worth

Looking at the numbers, one might be willing to ignore the injuries and the money in order to bring Butler in. The Clippers are in fact without a superstar caliber player and while deep, likely won’t have enough firepower to make the playoffs.

I still have some hesitation. Take a look at these two players stats from last season.

Player A: 21.4 PPG, 43.8 FG%, 34.5 3P%, 5.8 AST, 7.4 REB, 0.7 STL

Player B: 22.2 PPG, 47.4 FG%, 35.0 3P%, 4.9 AST, 5.3 REB, 2.0 STL

If you were paying attention earlier, you should know that Player B is Jimmy Butler. Compare his stats to Player A. While Butler is putting up better scoring numbers and steals, Player B has a more all-around type of game.

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Who is Player A? None other than Blake Griffin, who the Clippers parted ways with halfway through last season. Their reasoning? They didn’t feel comfortable paying someone who is injury prone max contract money into their thirties. Sounds a lot like Butler’s upcoming contract, right?

Although their games might not be similar, their situations seem to be. If the Clippers were cautious with the biggest star in their franchise’s history, why would they take a similar gamble on Butler? They might.

There is the “Kawhi factor”. Butler landing in Los Angeles could convince Kawhi Leonard to move out west next summer when he hits free agency. The two could team up and provide the Clips with a superstar tandem capable of competing in the West.

Does that make Butler worth the money? Maybe so. Having the opportunity to re-tool a franchise and add two superstars doesn’t come around often, especially when the Lakers share the same building.

Nothing is guaranteed though, especially when Kawhi’s free agency is almost a full year away. He could easily fall in love with Toronto, leaving the Clippers with Butler and a bunch of money to spend on role players. That team might make the playoffs, but short of a miracle won’t compete for a championship, which is the ultimate goal.

So is Butler worth it to the Clippers? In trading for him, probably not. The fifth year of his deal along with giving up assets seems risky. In signing him in free agency? Maybe. The Clippers will have to step back and evaluate not only Butler’s future but all paths that signing him could lead the franchise down.