To continue his Ways To Beat Warriors series, Tim Hiley looks at why it’s best for the Los Angeles Clippers to keep their team together and not trade Blake Griffin.
Out of the moves I’ve suggested, this is the most likely and possibly most successful. If the Clippers keep the roster together, with the bargain additions of Marreese Speights, Brandon Bass and Raymond Felton, and with health being on their side, the Clippers could be a real dark horse to win the championship (you know, if one of the Warriors’ “Mega Death” lineup is injured).
I genuinely believe that had Chris Paul and Blake Griffin not gone down within seconds of each other against Portland this year, it is my belief that the Clippers would have reached the NBA Finals.
This may sound deluded, but seeing how the Warriors struggled a little against the far inferior Blazers (Stephen Curry’s lingering injury being a major part of this) before coming within a game of losing to the Thunder, the Clippers, as the block in the Warriors’ path, could have broken through.
Just hours before Paul and Griffin’s injuries, Curry was declared out for at least the first few games of the following series, which means, had the Clippers progressed, they would be facing the Curry-lite Warriors. A fully healthy Clippers side would have, in my opinion, beaten this Warriors team, and I’d wager they’d beat them regardless.
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The Clippers played the Warriors as consistently tough as any side in the league last season, and despite not winning any of the four games, they lost by an average of only five points; a two possession game. The reason I think they’d have won is that seeing as they lost by an average of only five points when, in the second game of the series, they were without J.J. Redick, and in the final two games, they were without Griffin.
A fully fit Clippers side against a fully healthy Warriors side, I’d give the narrow advantage to the Clippers. I think the front court of DeAndre Jordan and Griffin beats the front court of Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green. Luc Mbah a Moute, while not contributing much offensively, I feel his fantastic defense outweighs what he lacks offensively, and I’d take that level of defense over Harrison Barnes’ streaky play.
Klay Thompson gets the matchup win over Redick. At point guard, it’s a wash for me, as Chris Paul is a better point guard and defender, but Stephen Curry is a better scorer.
Coaching, I’d again say, is fairly even, but would probably give the nod to Doc Rivers.
In regards to depth, it frustrates me how people always criticise the Clippers’ bench, when from Christmas onwards, it was the best bench in basketball, averaging 42 points per game and the 4th best bench across the season (Griffin’s injury obviously helps inflate these stats to a degree, but still). Whereas the Warriors, who are much praised for their depth, ranked 21st across the season on bench points.
Their bench led the league in steals and was in the top five in blocks. Their rebounding was lacking, but hopefully that will be helped with the addition of Speights who averaged 22 points and 10 boards per 36 minutes last season.
So, this year, I’d have given the Clippers the slight edge over the Warriors, providing it is somehow ended in six games, as I’d say that with Game 7 at the famed Oracle Arena, I wouldn’t be left with much hope.
If they’d got past the Warriors, I’d be very confident against the Thunder. Over the four games last season, the Clippers came back from a monumental 22-point deficit to beat them, lost one game in the dying seconds after some incorrect calls from the refs, and the final game came down to the final possession again, but with no Paul, Redick, Griffin or Jordan.
Yet again, I’d be confident going into that matchup. Cleveland would have been incredibly tough as they have had the Clippers number over the years, but if you put Paul and the Clippers just four wins away from an NBA Championship, who knows what could happen.
So, why am I talking about last year when it’s no longer relevant? Well, it’s to say that this side, fully healthy, is more than capable of challenging for an NBA title.
I think the Kevin Durant move elevates the Clippers to the second favourites in the Western Conference, but I feel the Clippers play their best when no one is expecting them to win. With all eyes on Golden State, the Clippers could mount a strong challenge.
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The Warriors have added a top-three talent in the world in Durant and a very solid center in Zaza Pachulia, but have lost a lot of depth to accomplish that. Meanwhile, the Clippers have kept the same bench more or less, and have added a few pieces in Speights, Felton and Bass. I’d still easily give the matchup to Jordan over Pachulia at center, though I may have to now, begrudgingly, give the small forward matchup to Durant over Mbah Moute!
But, otherwise, not much has changed in my method of how to beat the Warriors. If the Clippers, or any team in the league, decided to go small against the Warriors, that is a recepie for disaster, especially in light of their new super death lineup with Kevin Durant.
Therefore, in my opinion, the only way to have a hope of beating these Warriors is to go big. Play Jordan and Griffin out on the court and try to emulate what the Thunder did over the Western Conference Finals. Of course, they weren’t facing a Warriors team with the most prolific offensive lineup we’ve ever seen.
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Using height, strength and physicality to slow the pace down as much as possible and force Curry and Durant to shoot mid-range jumpers instead of dancing to the basket. Use Paul, Redick, Austin Rivers and Mbah Moute on the perimeter to try to slow down the three-point attempts and try to force them to step inside.
Also, last time the Clippers faced Durant in the playoffs, he struggled when Paul was guarding him, so I’d imagine he’ll mark him a lot, while Rivers tackles Curry.
The Clippers can throw an awful lot of defensive looks at the Warriors and our bigs of Jordan and Griffin will need to play like the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon and Bill Russell, but if the bigs play, well, big, I can see the Clippers making it tough for the Warriors.
Next: Why Clippers can be 2nd in West to Durant's Warriors
It’s not a fool proof method by any means and the addition of Durant has made bringing a championship to the red, white and blue side of Staples Center far, far tougher now, but the blueprint on how to beat the Warriors remains.
Go big, or go home.