Clippers have a chance to surpass Thunder as contenders

As the season has progressed and new strengths and weaknesses of top teams have emerged, the Clippers are far closer to surpassing the Thunder as contenders than expected.

For most of the 2015-16 NBA season thus far, it’s been a foregone conclusion that the Oklahoma City Thunder are better than the Los Angeles Clippers. They’ve controlled the 3rd seed in the Western Conference and behind the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, they’ve looked like the only team in the West who could truly cause a playoff upset against the top two teams enjoying historically dominant seasons.

As the last couple of months have gone by, though, the Clippers have taken everyone by surprise in Blake Griffin‘s absence and seriously caught up with OKC.

In fact, when we look at wins and nothing else (because that’s all that matters when it comes to playoff seeding anyway), the Clippers are inching ever closer to the Thunder at 41-21 in comparison to OKC’s 43-20. And if the Clips are able to defeat them in Wednesday night’s matchup in Oklahoma City, they will tie them for 3rd place in the Conference.

It’s not too bad seeing as just a few months ago they were written off against the best of the West, is it?

Now, we can instead propose the question of just how close are the Clippers to the Thunder? Or perhaps it’s time to ask whether the Clippers are actually able to overtake them?

As for the first question, “incredibly close” is the answer. Beyond the obvious matter of the win column, the performance of the Clippers as of late has them knocking at the door or Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and Co.

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On March 2, the Clippers knocked that door down, stunning the Thunder and everyone else by overcoming a game-high 22-point deficit and 17-point gap at the start of the fourth quarter to storm back for a 103-98 win. They recovered from a dismal first half and shaky third quarter and put together their best period of the season to close the game, going on a 24-4 run to take the lead and eventually the victory.

A flurry of desperate steals from players such as Wesley Johnson sparked some quick scores to capitalize off the Thunder’s five turnovers and 1-of-11 shooting in the run. After that, a couple of huge shots from Jamal Crawford with put-backs and-ones from DeAndre Jordan (not to mention two clutch free throws) knocked every spec of wind out the chest of the Thunder players.

There’s no need to go any further into the game, but it showed just how close these teams are right now as the franchises who are desperately pursuing the Warriors and Spurs as the clear top two. For the Clippers, they revealed their fight, their resolve, and seriously improved defense which now ranks a highly impressive 5th in efficiency.

As for the Thunder, the late shooting collapse was uncharacteristic, but they did show just how much their composure and late game execution can falter at times. Not to mention, their 13th ranked defense can have major lapses, resulting in allowing 35 fourth quarter points to the Clippers.

Their collapse against the Clips isn’t their only one of the season, though, even if it was the most heartbreaking. Throughout 2015-16, only the tank-happy Philadelphia 76ers have lost more games when entering the fourth quarter with a lead than the Thunder’s tally of nine. That lack of closing, stemming from poor shot selection on key possessions, an unreliable bench, an offense that can be exposed by heavy reliance on the Durant-Westbrook duo, reveals the current trend they’ve been on recently.

Ultimately, these factors and their composure in pivotal situations are the main reasons why they’ve lost five of their last eight games.

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On top of that, the Thunder’s alternate lineups are appalling. With Durant and Westbrook on the floor together with the starting lineup, they dominate to the tune of a +18.3 net rating. There’s no way to deny that mark is exceptional. However, when just one of them is on the floor that number falls, currently indicated by the absurd -55 net rating (albeit through only 28 minutes so far) when Randy Foye, Dion Waiters, Kyle Singler, Durant and Enes Kanter are used together (per Basketball Reference). With neither Durant or Westbrook on the floor, their positive net rating and ability to hold a lead almost disappears in an instant.

Unless head coach Billy Donovan’s lineups spreading their minutes throughout the game find new success, this could be showed up come playoff time. Through a seven-game series against other elite teams with more depth and a superior spread of talent through the roster, too much reliance on offensive stars can hurt. No matter how much talent OKC have and no matter how dominant they can be at their fastest pace, this is still a problem.

Of course, this article isn’t saying they aren’t a major threat and contender anymore, but it is a weakness that has allowed the Clippers to close the gap.

Feb 24, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) talks with guard Russell Westbrook (0) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. The Thunder beat the Mavs 116-103. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports /

More clippers: DeAndre Jordan is showing up offensively

That being said, the Clippers can’t be totally excused in similar areas as well. While their bench has undoubtedly improved and Crawford’s 16.9 points over the last 25 games (with 42.2 percent shooting and a 33.3 percent three-point shot) is an awful lot better than the early stages of the season, the second unit can still be a weakness. That much can’t be denied, but it’s improved a great deal. The all-bench lineup of Pablo Prigioni, Austin Rivers, Crawford, Johnson and Cole Aldrich only has a net rating of -7.3 (per Basketball Reference).

Even though it’s clearly a weakness and Jeff Green isn’t making much of a positive difference, it isn’t quite as detrimental as the Thunder’s all-bench units and this can be helped when Blake returns and the roster can be more balanced.

Also, now that the defense is far better (ranking 2nd in opponent field goal percentage at 43.4), it’s fairly easy to place them ahead of the Thunder in both categories as of right now (emphasis on the “right now”). And don’t forget that the Clippers have joined the Spurs as the only teams in the entire league to rank in the top five for both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’ve achieved this without one of their superstars too, adopting Chris Paul‘s leadership and new small-ball success instead.

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When Griffin returns, matters can get even better. With their superstar point guard-power forward, they have their post presence, their elite interior scorer, their star who can run the offense, another strong rebounder, and someone who can even be used more to help the second unit.

As the weeks to the playoffs wind down, the Clippers could soon surpass the Thunder as the contender sitting right behind the Spurs. Now more than ever, it’s time to stop thinking of L.A. as a team who can’t defend, solely rely on two superstars and are no more than a postseason write-off after losing to the Houston Rockets last year. Their time without Griffin has proved this, and they should only add emphasis to the matter when he returns.

There’s a definite chance that, even if they aren’t quite there yet, the Clippers may be able to surpass the Thunder as a greater postseason threat.

Next: Clippers need far more than offense from Blake Griffin

On Wednesday night, we’ll get another example of how well these teams match up against each other. And when we get past their next game and Griffin returns, the Clippers are set up perfectly to make a run past the Thunder, for both the 3rd seed and possibly even for a series victory against them in the playoffs.

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