The LA Clippers’ Clutch Issues are Overblown, But Real

After the LA Clippers lost the Milwaukee Bucks game due to a collapse in the final minutes, the discourse on the internet has been centered around their problems as a “clutch” team. Some of the statistics certainly don’t tell a pretty story. Last in the league in Defensive Rating in the clutch. Last in the league in Net Rating in the clutch. Twentieth in win percentage.

Here’s the problem. The LA Clippers have played in 16 games in which there was a clutch situation, per NBA stats. And they’re only averaging 2.4 clutch minutes per game in those 16 games – that’s 29th in the league, only above the Utah Jazz.

The numbers behind the LA Clippers’ clutch struggles need some context

We’re talking about 38 minutes here. Fewer than 100 possessions. Not even one full game. Imagine watching the first three quarters of the LA Clippers’ first game of the season and thinking that the statistics tell a reliable story about the Clips’ offense this year.

I’m not going to buy too much into the fact that the LA Clippers dish out the fewest assists per game in the clutch; of course they do. The top 3 teams in that stat get double the number of clutch minutes per game to give out assists.

The added context is that, of course, the LA Clippers have often had the rest disadvantage in their clutch losses. Against Utah, Golden State, Brooklyn, Boston and Milwaukee, the Clips were playing either their 3rd game in 4 nights or 4th game in 6 nights, and the opponent was more rested.

It’s hard for me to get too scared about the LA Clippers not fighting as hard on the boards when they’re exhausted and trying to box out against much fresher legs. You still want the win there, of course, but the context matters.

That’s not to say there’s nothing to be unhappy about, of course. If you look at normalized statistics – say, clutch assists per minute instead of clutch assists per game – the LA Clippers come in at 23rd (17th in overall assists per minute, without caring about clutch). They’re 22nd in clutch rebounds per minute (12th overall), and they’re still 30th in opponent scoring per minute (6th overall).

There’s a definite drop in performance, especially defensively, but it’s not as drastic as the internet wants you to believe. Much of this probably falls on Coach Lue’s preference to run his system for the majority of the game, then let the stars take over at the end.

That sort of system is going to bog down production if Kawhi Leonard and Paul George aren’t hitting; also, the other three dudes on the court might not buy in quite as much on doing the dirty work if they know that their offensive role is to stand around and be ready to shoot if the iso breaks down.

It’s not that there aren’t any problems here. If you want to be concerned about how the team operates in the clutch, that’s totally fair. The offense gets very iso heavy, and that can lead to the role players not being as engaged on either side of the ball. But we shouldn’t just look at the stats with zero context and think they tell the whole story, especially when there’s not even a full game’s worth of minutes to judge by.