LA Clippers: Kawhi Leonard is the MVP, not LeBron James
As Kawhi Leonard and the LA Clippers round the first quarter of the season and approach the halfway point, it seems like everyone is in agreement on the MVP race. It’s a three man race between LeBron James, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid
Wait. What?
Take a look at the NBA’s MVP Ladder. LeBron hasn’t relinquished his top spot. Basketball-reference’s MVP odds tell the three man race story, with LeBron almost double the odds of Kawhi Leonard.
The Los Angeles forward who should be at the forefront of the MVP race is the LA Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard.
When you break down the race piece by piece, it’s hard to say that Kawhi Leonard isn’t the most valuable forward in Los Angeles. So let’s do just that, piece by piece. Lebron’s biggest argument over Kawhi is in the counting stats.
Kawhi Leonard: 26.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.9 turnovers, 1.5 fouls, .505/.402/.881 shooting
LeBron James: 25.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.7 turnovers, 1.6 fouls, .495/.395/.723 shooting.
When it comes to the box score statistics, I’m not going to be an overt homer. LeBron gets a nod here, but not a huge one. He grabs more rebounds and puts up more assists than Kawhi Leonard, but he scores slightly less and doesn’t contribute as many blocks or steals, and he doesn’t shoot the ball as well.
On the assist front, it’s important to note that LeBron’s turnovers are much higher than Kawhi’s. When you look at assist/turnover ratios, Kawhi dishes out 2.68 assists for every turnover he coughs up. LeBron collects 2.14 assists for every turnover he loses. So sure, James is leading in total assists, but the LA Clippers lose the ball less often with Kawhi as the ballhandler than the Lakers do with James.
I give a slight nod to James in the counting stats category, but just a slight one, and that’s far from the only argument. After all, context matters, and both of these guys have another superstar beside them. However, they’ve also both played in a few games without their running mate. And how did they do?
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Kawhi Leonard without Paul George (4 games): 28.5 points, 8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.5 turnovers, 1.5 fouls, .494/.375/.786 shooting.
LeBron James without Anthony Davis (5 games): 24.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.4 blocks, 4.0 turnovers, 1.8 fouls, .474/.270/.778 shooting
The “taking care of the ball” discussion is the same here. LeBron gets a few more assists, but his turnovers go up to 4 per game, and his assist/turnover ratio is 2.05, while Kawhi Leonard has an assist/turnover ratio of 2.2.
We shouldn’t ignore the fact that, when both of these guys lose their superstar partner, Kawhi Leonard straight up plays much better for the LA Clippers than LeBron does for the Lakers. Better scoring, similar rebounding, fewer assists (but better assists/turnovers), similar defensive stats and significantly better shooting.
Okay, so Kawhi Leonard has slightly worse statistics in general, but much better statistics when these guys are the only superstar active. But what about team performance? Let’s take a look at that.
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When Kawhi Leonard is off the floor, the LA Clippers have a 110.0 offensive rating and a 114.9 defensive rating. When he’s on the floor, the LA Clippers have an absurd offensive rating of 124.4 and a defensive rating of 109.1. The gist here is that, by subbing in Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers get 14.4 points per 100 possessions better on offense and 5.8 points per 100 possessions better on defense.
On the Lakers side, our rivals have a 107.8 offensive rating and 108.2 defensive rating when he’s off, and a 116 offensive rating and 104.9 defensive rating when he’s on. So putting LeBron on the floor makes the Lakers 8.2 points per 100 possessions better on offense and 3.3 points per 100 possessions better on defense.
To me, that’s the stake in the argument. Kawhi Leonard makes the LA Clippers better on offense and defense by significantly more than LeBron makes the Lakers. The net rating (offensive minus defensive) for the LA Clippers goes up by 20.2 points per 100 possessions with Kawhi on, and the net rating for the Lakers only goes up by 11.5 when LeBron’s on.
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James may have somewhat better counting stats, but Kawhi Leonard performs much better when he’s the only star on the court, and the Clippers perform much better when he’s on the floor than the Lakers do when LeBron’s on the floor. In my eyes, your MVP right now is Kawhi Leonard.