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LA Clippers: Where are Ivica Zubac’s minutes?

By Joseph Raya-Ward

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 22: Ivica Zubac #40 of the LA Clippers hi-fives team amtes before the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on October 22, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 22: Ivica Zubac #40 of the LA Clippers hi-fives team amtes before the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on October 22, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Ivica Zubac has given the LA Clippers productive minutes this season. Why, then, has Doc Rivers only played him three total fourth-quarter minutes?

Ivica Zubac has taken a step forward this season with the LA Clippers. He took his conditioning seriously this summer and has come into the year looking stronger, leaner, and faster. The eye test says that when Zubac plays, he has been an imposing force defensively, and a solid pick and roll partner with Kawhi Leonard.

His counting stats, however, do not jump off the page. So far this season, Zu is averaging  9.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per contest. His advanced stats, on the other hand, are extremely impressive.

Zubac currently has a net rating (the difference between offensive rating and defensive rating) of +41. That’s an elite number. His per-36 numbers are equally as elite: 21.4 points, 15.1 rebounds and 3.2 blocks. He’s grabbing nearly 30 percent of the defensive rebounds while he’s on the floor and blocking almost 10 percent of opponent’s shots. He is also hitting almost 80 percent of his shots within three feet of the basket.

In other words, Zubac has been a monster. So why, then, is he only getting 16.1 minutes a game?

The answer is within the Clippers’ 4th quarter lineups. Zubac is averaging less than six minutes per game in the second half and has only played three minutes in the fourth quarter all season. The lion’s share of the fourth quarter center minutes has gone to Montrezl Harrell, who is averaging 10 minutes per game in the fourth. He’s having an incredible season himself and has shined specifically in the fourth quarter, scoring more than a third of his points in the final frame this season.

The numbers have backed up Doc Rivers’ decision to ride Harrell so far. He has been involved in the three most-used lineups in the fourth quarter this year. None of those lineups have an offensive rating lower than 129, which would lead the league by nearly 12 points, and both lineups that also feature Leonard have Defensive Ratings of 85 or lower, which would lead the league by a good margin as well.

Basically, the LA Clippers have been very, very good in the fourth quarter this year, and Harrell’s offensive prowess has been a major factor. Harrell’s interior defense, however, has been less impressive.

Harrell is undersized as a center, standing at just 6’7. He is still able to alter shots because of his 7’4 wingspan, but he has historically struggled as a rim protector. This season is no different. He is allowing opponents to hit 58.6 percent of their shots within 10 feet of the basket, and 55.5 percent of their shots within six.

In the fourth quarter, those numbers become more troubling. There, he is allowing opponents to hit 68.8 percent of their shots within 10 feet and 75 percent within six.

The Clippers should be able to leverage their perimeter defense to limit shots at the rim, especially once Paul George starts playing, but Harrell is a liability as a rim protector.

Zubac has been the opposite. His size helps, but Zubac has combined better footwork and lateral quickness to become a legitimately imposing defensive presence. For the season, Zubac is limiting opponents to 37 percent shooting within 10 feet and 41 percent within six, a number that would have led the league last year among players who played at least half the season.

While the lineups have worked so far, not being able to stop opponents at the rim may come back to bite the Clippers moving forward. Giving Zubac minutes in the fourth quarter is the clearest way to remedy that. While Doc seems hell-bent on playing Harrell and Lou Williams together at all times (84 percent of Harrell’s minutes have come with Williams also on the floor), some flexibility in the key moments of a game could help the team come playoff time.

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Having too many good players is a good problem to have, but Ivica Zubac needs more minutes. The 22-year-old has put in the work and his play is showing that he has earned them. Playing him more often in the second half is the clearest way to get them, and he could help improve the LA Clippers’ late-game defense in the process.

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