5
The next number that I think is important for the upcoming season (and the first one that points to tampering expectations) is 5. That’s the difference between our expected win total last year and our actual win total.
The expected win total is based on a team’s point differential, and is calculated like so:
Expected win% = ((ppg differential * 2.7) + 41)/82
Basically, that tells you how many games you’d be expected to win, based on how well you scored and defended. The central idea is that close games are less indicative of how good a team actually is. If a game comes down to the final shot, there’s a fairly high amount of luck involved in who gets the win and who doesn’t.
I’m not saying that teams can’t be clutch and play well in close games, but there’s often very little consistency year-to-year in which teams are clutch. And when you plug in the Clippers’ point differential from last year, you get an expected win total of 43, while the team actually won 48.
So what’s the point here? Well, it’s been a big talking point this offseason that the Clips “added Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to a 48 win team.” Ignoring the losses and additions of other players, that’s still not a great way to think about it.
Sure, we added Kawhi and PG to a 48 win team, but the team played at a 43 win level. That’s a big difference. If you’re looking at last year’s win total and thinking “Kawhi and PG are probably worth 10 wins!” then you’re calling for the team to push 60 wins, which is a hugely successful regular season.
But more realistically, even if Kawhi and PG are worth 10 wins, then we’re looking at a team playing at a low 50s win total level. I think that’s a more attainable hope for the team. And besides, we know going in that this is a postseason team more than a regular-season team.