The LA Clippers offense looks drastically different now compared to three years ago, and it’s not just the names on the jerseys. We look into the new Clippers offensive philosophy.
One of the common threads between some of the league’s top offenses lately has been their dependence on analytics to guide their system. For an extreme example, look at the Houston Rockets’ barrage of 3 pointers and phobia of midrange jumpers.
It’s perhaps no coincidence that these teams – the Warriors, the Rockets, the Bucks, etc. – are some of the powerhouses of the league. Like it or not, the numbers don’t lie when they point towards how to be as efficient as possible.
In recent years, the Clippers have, themselves, jumped on this “let the numbers tell us which shots to take” train. What I’m showing you here is the number of shots the Clips attempted per game from different spots on the floor since 2009-10
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Look at that! In 2010-11, the Clippers took far more midrangers than 3s, and only 0.1 more shots at the rim than from the midrange! Holy Kobe Bryant, Batman!
A common misconception about basketball analytics is that it tells you “shoot a ton of threes, no matter what.” That’s not really true. What analytics tell you is “shoot the most efficient shot, no matter what.” It just so happens that, if a team has Stephen Curry or James Harden, the most efficient shot is a three pointer.
It’s not that threes are the only shot worth taking; if you have a dominant force on the inside like Shaq back in the day, or LeBron James now, those guys shooting at the rim are always the most efficient shot. But because a shot from 24 feet is worth 1.5X a shot from 23 feet, a team with shooters is always going to shoot that first one.
The Clippers haven’t really had a bunch of big time shooters in the last decade. Of course we had J.J. Redick who was a sniper, and now we have Landry Shamet stepping into that role, but as a whole our team hasn’t been big on three point bombers.
So instead of taking a bunch of threes when they didn’t have the personnel for it, the Clippers decided to go for the other most efficient shot – inside the restricted area, at the rim.
The Clippers shot 60.6% on these shots, good for 1.212 points per shot. In comparison, they shot 39.06% from 3, good for 1.172 points per shot. They realized that, for LAC, shots at the rim are worth more than shots from three so they took a lot of shots at the rim!
Compare that to the midrange game. They shot 40.1% from the midrange, good for a paltry 0.802 points per shot. Given the choice between a shot worth 0.802 points and a shot worth 1.212 points, which would you take? It’s a clear choice. That’s why you see such a steep dropoff in midrange shots in the past couple of years. The team turned almost half of their midrange jumpers into shots at the rim and 3 pointers.
It’s good to see the Clippers fully embracing the math behind the NBA. It’s a testament to the front office and coaching staff that they got the team to buy in to the philosophy so much, and it bodes good things for the future to come.