Three X-Factors
1) Make Westbrook Shoot
This was briefly mentioned already, but it would be a big point of contention in a series. Listen, Russell Westbrook is easily a top-15 player in the NBA, but out of him or Paul George, he is the one you want to make beat you.
Westbrook has proven himself a capable passer (averaging a triple-double for three straight seasons will make you look pretty rounded), so playing off of him and daring him to shoot is the best way to limit his impact.
According to NBA.com, Westbrook is only hitting 31.9% of wide open (Closest Defender is 6ft+) three point attempts. On open attempts (Defender is 4-6ft), he’s at 24.6%. With Paul George being the only real shooting threat in the Thunder’s starting lineup, sticking tight to him and occasionally double-teaming might be the way to go.
2) Protect the Rim
Going hand in hand with the first point, protecting the rim is key. Both George and Westbrook are extremely good at finishing at the rim. On shot attempts at less than 10ft, they are making 57.3% and 58.1% respectively. Couple that with the fact that PG is 10th in the league with 7.0 free throws attempted per game and Westbrook is 14th at 6.5 FTA and you have a real problem.
In fact, OKC scores over 55.4% of their points from two-point range. Luckily, the Clippers have shored up their rim protection.
Quietly, (or not so) Ivica Zubac has really stabilized the Clippers defense and saved their season on that end of the floor. He's been a massive upgrade over Gortat, and the Clips have been top 10 in defense since he's joined the team.
— Justin W. (@LAClippersFilm) March 7, 2019
The young center will have to be on his A-game through the whole series. Plays like the one below will be difference makers.
Zuuuuuuu
— Justin W. (@LAClippersFilm) March 7, 2019
To be able to contain the ball handler, then contain the roller on the drive enough to where you can protect the rim is a form of multitasking that really isn't easy for guys Zubac's size. Night and day when you watch him play defense compared to Gortat. pic.twitter.com/QDNuMyGg7n
When Zubac subs out and Montrezl Harrell comes in, there cannot be too much of a drop off. Harrell may not be an elite rim protector, but he will have to use that motor of his to stay in front of the offense and make sure he’s in the best possible position to stop the play.
3) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
In the first playoff series of his career, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be matched up against an all-time great guard. As I mentioned earlier, he has not fared well against the Thunder this year, so that needs to change for the Clippers to stand a chance.
Westbrook has been known to turn the ball over, so Shai needs to understand how to use his length defensively. He may not have the quickness to stay with Westbrook, but can make up for getting beat using his 7’0 wingspan.
On the offensive end, Shai needs to be aggressive. He needs to drive to the paint, which not only should allow him to score, but could open up the floor for the rest of the team, specifically Landry Shamet. There have been times during his rookie season that Shai has been timid, but in a playoff series, he cannot do that.
No, I don’t expect a perfect series from him nor even a great one. He will have to do a lot of growing up in the moment and if he can show signs of why he was the 11th overall pick, it could help the Clips to pull off an upset.