Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s January Worth Worrying About?

After a hot start to the season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough January. But is it something to be worried about for the LA Clippers, or just a rookie slump?

If you polled NBA talking heads in the middle of December, and asked them “who was the steal of the 2018 NBA draft?”, many would have responded with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (that would have been what all of us at Clipperholics would likely tell you). Shai was playing very well, and helping to lead a LA Clippers squad that was surprising many.

Some of that hype has quieted down in the last month. Shai’s play hasn’t been quite up to par with his earlier season performance; indeed, Justin Russo on Twitter noted the decline:

Looking into Shai’s shooting performance, there has certainly been a large drop off in the past month (data from stats.nba.com).

"View post on imgur.com"

Should Clippers fans be freaking out? Should we fire up the Trade Machine and see what trades work? Has SGA been figured out?

Not quite. It’s worth looking a little deeper into how he’s played, beyond just shooting. Per stats.nba.com, January was Shai’s best month in Assist Percentage, 2nd best month in assists per turnover, tied for his best month in assists per 36 minutes, and he shows improvement in Defensive Win Shares and Defensive Rating from December to January.

So what should we take from this? The answer could be as simple as him being tired. He’s suffered no drop-off in passing the ball or taking care of the ball, nor in most defensive stats. These are areas that come more from his feel of the game and understanding of the system.

On the other hand, fatigue would affect his shot; the legs are the first to go when a player gets tired, and Shai’s already played almost 20 more games than he did his entire college career. This would explain why he’s had such a drop in shooting percentages.

For what it’s worth, SGA would not be the first rookie to get tired as the All-Star Break approaches. In fact, looking at the FG% of every rookie guard to play at least 15 minutes per game in the 2017-18 season, a clear trend emerges.

"View post on imgur.com"

With the exception of Ben Simmons (who’s of course a special case), all of those rookie guards shot worse in January than they did in December – some more so than others, but all declined. Even Donovan Mitchell, who tore up the NBA last year and whose FG% was on a rocket trajectory upward all year, hit a wall in January.

The “rookie wall” is a very real effect. These guys come in from college and play double or triple the number of games they’re used to playing, they get tired, and their shots start to slip. Often, there will be an improvement after the All-Star Break, when the rookies get some time to rest and recuperate some tired muscles.

If Shai’s issues are based in fatigue, as they seem to be, that’s a problem that can be worked on fairly easily. His feel for the Clippers’ offense hasn’t gone anywhere; just like most rookies, he needs more time adjusting to the grueling NBA season. If he can do so like some of the rookies from last year, we’re in for a fun ride.