Expectations are everything in sports.
For Wesley Johnson, he’s far familiar with expectations, particularly performing below them. In Minnesota, Johnson was asked to be a lottery talent, helping transform the Timberwolves in the post-Garnett era; he failed. In Phoenix, Johnson was asked to be a step below that, resembling a first-round pick in some form or fashion outside of natural athleticism; he failed. In Los Angeles, the play was fitting but not enough to demand Lakers’ brass to re-sign the forward.
Then came the Clippers.
The veteran minimum salary was proof of low expectations, unless Johnson aligned himself beside those who bet on themselves and play below their market to 1) boost contract value and 2) play on a team headed to the playoffs. For Johnson it was a reasonable move — at worst, he’d remain a vet minimum guy hoping to remain in the league behind the 3-and-D niche teams have on their radar; at best, improve his free agent standing for the following summer and in the process, increase his potential earnings: so far, Johnson is the latter, and while the Clippers mildly benefit in the present, it’s Johnson who’ll gain all benefits in an immediate future.
Sir Charles In Charge
The baseline for Johnson with the Clippers was always low: be better than Hedo Turkoglu; or Reggie Bullock; or the injured Jared Dudley. Replicating his efforts with the Lakers from the previous year would’ve cleared this baseline with ease, and at the price paid, that would have sufficed as Johnson embraced the role as reserve behind the likes of Lance Stephenson and Paul Pierce in the rotation.
Instead, it’s Johnson who’s emerged as the Clippers’ best non-J.J. Redick wing, adjusting to a role that requires very little of him on both ends of the floor in terms of need, focusing his efforts into concentrated areas: three-point shooting, versatility, defense. At 5.9 attempts per, Johnson’s averaging the least shots per game in his career. Inversely, he’s a hash high enough to qualify for highest three-point attempt per game for his career at 3.8, allowing for a 3-point rate of .641, meaning he’s shooting threes and doing very little of everything else.
The three-point shooting averages alone aren’t rave-worthy, hitting 34% from range, down from 36% and 35% in back-to-back seasons with the Lakers, but Johnson is more than making up for it thanks to his percentages from the corner, currently hitting 50% of 84 attempts. To put it simply, he’s doing enough to force defenders to respect him from the area, and in 2016’s NBA, teams pay money for that.
There’s a team that could use what Johnson provides. Granted, Johnson’s more important to this Clippers team because of an underwhelming conglomerate of talent on the wing than he’d be for another team (in theory, because injuries and stuff) but he helps in numerous sections, if only at a mediocre-to-average level. Everyone wants a shooter. Everyone wants a forward who can play both forward spots, even if it’s done better in theory than in practice. Everyone wants someone who can switch in the pick-and-roll to deter offenses from creating mismatches by having a big opposite the ball-handler on the perimeter. Everyone wants a guy who can slash in the half court and forces defenses to react in transition by running the floor.
The baseline for Johnson’s salary could begin around $4 to $5 million, which would be close to a 400% increase from this years salary, and for any person, NBA player or regular, that’s a hefty pay day. With the cap increase expected to inflate the pockets of majority teams next summer, if he finishes the season off right, meaning a playoff performance worthy of making potential suitors bat an eyelash or two, that baseline could increase.
Last summer, Corey Brewer received a deal worth roughly $6 million per to remain with the Houston Rockets. Omri Casspi of the Sacramento Kings signed a deal worth $3 million last summer (he’s surely due for an upgrade). Al-Farouq Aminu left the Dallas Mavericks to sign with the Portland Trail Blazers on a deal that begin around $7.5 million.
Johnson has outperformed Brewer this year — with ease, might I add — so adjusting Brewer’s 2015 deal with inflation to adjust to the upcoming cap boom, that could be Johnson’s way to a $5 million salary, or the full mid-level exception; whichever best fits. Because of age, no team would give Johnson a lengthy deal so a two-year, $6 to $10 million deal, possibly with a player option in Year 2 so Johnson could again set himself up to benefit from solid role play.
Could Johnson improve from here? Outside of the areas he’s productive in at the moment, probably not, because basketball history tells us that’s an unlikely progression at this age and point in NBA career, but if a suitor — whether the Clippers or another — can keep the former lottery pick in a roll that forces him to stick to the basics, someone’ll be happy with the addition and it won’t just be Johnson who’s pockets see a hefty increase.