Clippers: How will L.A.’s 2016-17 defense compare to last season?

The Los Angeles Clippers have parted with Cole Aldrich and made a few adjustments to their bench in free agency. How will this impact their defense for the 2016-17 season?

The Los Angeles Clippers didn’t exactly take a jump forward in free agency this summer. They failed to win the Kevin Durant sweepstakes (as expected), yet made some solid free agent signings for no more than the veteran’s minimum to maintain the bench such as Marreese Speights, Raymond Felton and Alan Anderson to depend the small forward rotation.

After all, other than these kind of bargains, there were never many options for Doc Rivers and Co. given their minimal amount of cap space.

The key for the Clippers heading into next season, though, is continuity, something that they haven’t always had in recent years when dealing with the rotating door at small forward and the battle of trying to build a reliable second unit.

Bringing back players like Wesley Johnson, Austin Rivers and Luc Mbah a Moute all helps, simply to avoid another roster shake up and an early struggle of structure, team defense and chemistry issues.

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While there is continuity, though, the defense will still be changing.

Even though one statistic certainly can’t be the sole determiner of a player’s defensive ability or impact, Defensive Real-Plus Minus (via ESPN) can help indicate someone’s impact when they’re on the floor, how their most common lineup performs, and offers an initial representation of how the Clippers’ 2016-17 roster generally compares to last season.

To best represent how the team has changed over the summer (again, this is just one statistic, so more discussion will follow), I’ll only include the players who finished out the season in L.A., rather than throwing in guys like Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith, which would skew the results.

Pus, to consider the unknown DRPM of new rookies Brice Johnson and Diamond Stone, I’ll remove C.J. Wilcox and Branden Dawson; two young guys who hardly played. Seeing as both Johnson and Stone will be at the bottom of the Clippers’ depth chart this season, this will better show how the rotation of the first 13 men will look and the value of those carrying the bulk of the available playing time. Anderson will also be left out after playing in only 13 games last season due to injury.

Clippers’ yearly change in DRPM
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Essentially, as you can see for last season, the total DRPM for the 2015-16 squad is higher than what the Clippers currently have now. The players with a negative DRPM from last season (detailed in red below zero in the graph) also sees a slight increase for next season.

More than anything else, that comes down to the loss of Stone Cole Aldrich, the gritty rebounder and rim protector who salvaged so many otherwise weak bench lineups. This is where DRPM does provide a fair visualisation of just how much the team is losing in this regard.

Aldrich ranked 4th in the NBA in DRPM last season at 4.46 (making up a huge chunk of the left column because of it), recorded a 94 defensive rating, and helped force opponents to score 1.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when he was in the game (a tall feat when you’re backing up All-Defensive First Team center DeAndre Jordan).

After the Josh Smith at center experiment (thankfully) failed, Aldrich received far more minutes, especially in the absence of Blake Griffin. With averages of 13 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per 36 minutes, Aldrich protected the paint far better than anyone outside of Jordan could.

Speights, meanwhile, lacking some of the length, reactions and positioning that Aldrich has, only averaged 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes last season, and won’t serve as the same kind of anchor off the bench.

There are other factors to think of when looking ahead to next season’s changes, though. For a start, the Clippers may have transitioned away from more reliable defense at backup center, but they’ve acquired far superior floor spacing in the process.

Speights shot 38.7 percent from three in the 2015-16 regular season. Once he made it a regular element of his game early in 2016, he continued to pose a threat from not just his favorite spot on the floor (around 16-20 feet), but from beyond the arc.

That newfound success continued into the playoffs, resulting in a 41.9 percent shot from three and an impressive 3.2 makes per 36 minutes.

Yes, Speights will likely drop off from that kind of playoff shooting in L.A. But seeing as Aldrich has no kind of jump shot, the parting with his rim protection and rebounding comes with new offensive diversity that should hopefully open up space for others and compensate for some of the defensive drop off.

To an extent, Brandon Bass also helps. Numbers were skewed somewhat last season for certain players, such as Paul Pierce and Austin Rivers, for example. Pierce, who received far more minutes with the starting lineup, comes off better in DRPM because of it. Playing with two All-Defensive First Team guys in Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan does that.

However, anyone who watched the Clippers play knows that Rivers took a real step forward defensively, from new intensity to contesting opponents tightly outside and covering drives to the rim.

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Pierce was atrocious, thanks to age and continued drop offs in speed and quickness that made him a liability at the perimeter and, most importantly, inside and on the boards as a small-ball four without Griffin. With Pierce on the floor, opponents were able to score 3.8 more points per 100 possessions. The return of Blake immediately adds a far stronger big man to help cover the post, not to mention provide far more defensive rebounding than Pierce.

Add in Bass, and the Clippers have an actual power forward to provide more size and help on the glass than any wing masquerading at the four could last season.

As for the loss of Pablo Prigioni and the arrival of Raymond Felton, not too much changes. Prigioni’s steal rate was excellent, highlighted by eight in less than 15 minutes in a January game against Miami and an average of 2.3 per 36 minutes. Outside of steals, age was clearly catching up with the then 38-year-old as an on-ball defender.

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But minutes are limited behind Paul and Rivers. And Felton, as someone who can offer steady enough playmaking and driving ability on offense, is seven years younger and should be fine in such a role defensively.

Ultimately, one of the main benefits of the Clippers enjoying some continuity this summer will be their perimeter defense. Johnson could be inconsistent at times but he was a pleasant surprise at others. Rivers improved, and Mbah a Moute was one of the team’s best defenders altogether. Re-signing all three is a positive. Having Anderson onboard to help limit Pierce is another bonus.

At the same time, re-signing Jamal Crawford and Paul Pierce (possibly) avoiding retirement is a negative, especially if they’re on the floor together. Even still, though, they can’t undo the improvements of the Clippers to 4th in defensive efficiency last season.

The problem all comes back to the second unit’s interior defense, which was likely going to be the case if Aldrich left. Replacing that level of production, defense and rebounding in a minimum-level backup center was always going to be a long shot.

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However, depth and size has been added by signing Bass in addition to Speights. The vital positive with the latter is spacing, and only time will tell whether improved offense and a pinch more toughness at power forward with Bass is enough to compensate for the damaging loss of Aldrich.