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LA Clippers projected to win just 46 games in 2016-17 by ESPN

By Tom West

Apr 10, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers protests a call to referees during the 3rd quarter at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 10, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers protests a call to referees during the 3rd quarter at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports /
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According to ESPN’s real plus-minus calculations, the LA Clippers are projected to win just 46 games in the 2016-17 NBA season.

Since adding Kevin Durant this offseason, the Golden State Warriors should be unanimously pegged as the best team in the NBA. Despite the hit their size and rim protection has taken after losing Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli, it’s almost impossible to argue otherwise. However, while they may look like a lock for the league’s best record in 2016-17, their win total and the standing of every other team (bar the Cleveland Cavaliers out East) is a little more up in the air. That includes the LA Clippers.

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton (Insider access is needed for the article, unfortunately) has created projections for next season based on real plus-minus. Rather than a guessing game or quick take, RPM weighs up teams from an analytical standpoint based on their performance from last season, their opponents, playing time estimates, and changes in personnel.

For the Clippers, Pelton’s RPM calculations project 46.3 wins.

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Here’s how that has them stacked up against the rest of the Western Conference:

1st: Golden State Warriors (66.8)

2nd: San Antonio Spurs (54.5)

3rd: Utah Jazz (47.6)

4th: LA Clippers (46.3)

5th: Houston Rockets (45.8)

6th: Oklahoma City Thunder (45.6)

7th: Portland Trail Blazers (44.5)

8th: Denver Nuggets (40.4)

9th: Memphis Grizzlies (39.4)

10th: Sacramento Kings (37.7)

11th: Minnesota Timberwolves (37.1)

12th: New Orleans Pelicans (37)

13th: Dallas Mavericks (34.3)

14th: Phoenix Suns (29.2)

15th: LA Lakers (24.3)

I won’t delve into my full thoughts or rankings now (that’s another in-depth story for another time). However, in terms of the top few teams, I’d say there are a couple of issues.

As much as the Jazz added this offseason by bringing in Joe Johnson, George Hill and Boris Diaw to improve their defense, perimeter shooting and versatility, I don’t predict them to jump past the 4th seed.

Near 50 wins could be a possibility, but saying that that will get them to the 3rd seed seems to be a little ambitious.

The Spurs winning somewhere in the mid 50s seems like a reasonable prediction, as there will surely be a drop off after last season. Losing Tim Duncan and adding Pau Gasol and David Lee to their frontcourt will be a major hit to their interior defense after they led the league in defensive rating last season. That being said, edging closer to 60 wins still wouldn’t be surprising. After all, this is Gregg Popovich and the Spurs.

As for the Clippers, the 4th seed and only 46 wins seems awfully low.

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Without Blake Griffin last season, Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan and the team’s defense (which ranked 4th in efficiency) stepped up to the occasion to win 53 games.

Since the 2011-12 season, it was lowest win percentage (64.6) of the CP3 era, and I can’t see that — providing Griffin doesn’t miss 45 games again — they’ll win just 56 percent of their games and finish the regular season 4th in the West with 46 wins.

Having Griffin back and healthy will provide a huge jolt for the Clippers’ offense. Hopefully, Doc Rivers allows him to have a few more playmaking opportunities as well, alleviating some pressure from Paul and truly letting Griffin remind everyone what a force he can be. That kind of return shouldn’t pull back the Clippers to seven fewer wins.

Even though the second unit didn’t take a leap forward this summer as fans would hope, there is some promising depth with guys like Brandon Bass, Alan Anderson and Raymond Felton being added. And despite the loss of Cole Aldrich which diminishes the bench’s rim protection, Marreese Speights is a great addition for the spacing he provides.

Next: Breaking down the Clippers' toughest month of 2016-17

The 3rd or 2nd seed in the West should be a pretty safe expectation for a healthy Clippers team.

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